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The Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics renew one of the NBA's all-time great rivalries beginning on Thursday, when the NBA Finals begin in Boston. While the two teams were pretty evenly matched back in the 1980s, with the Lakers winning twice and Boston winning once, but sports bettors don't believe that to be the case this year, as Los Angeles has been bet up to nearly a -200 favorite. At Olympic, the Lakers are -185, with Boston +165, Intertops has L.A. -200 and Boston +170, while Sportsbook has the Lakers -200, but only a +160 return on the Celtics. Remember, it pays to shop lines on a consistent basis.
The teams met twice during the regular season, with Boston coming away with easy wins both times, although that was before the Lakers added Pau Gasol. The Celtics won 110-91 in Los Angeles behind the 33 points of Paul Pierce in December after previously defeating the Lakers by a score of 107-94 in Beantown back in November. Both those games were played so long ago, they're pretty much irrelevant now.
Instead of looking at past history, it's best to look at the strengths and weaknesses of both teams in trying to determine the winner of the series. The teams are pretty close to each other in offensive shooting percentage, but the Lakers average nearly 10 more points per game than Boston for the sole reason of playing a more uptempo game, which results in more possessions.
The Celtics have a slight edge in defense field goal percentage, allowing just 42-percent, while the Lakers allow 44.4-percent shooting. The Celtics allow 11 fewer points per game, but again the stat is a bit misleading for the same reason of there being fewer possessions in a typical Boston game.
Where the Value IsUltimately, bettors must ask themselves where the value is in the series. The Celtics are in the unique situation of possibly being favored four times at home, but are still the underdogs, and pretty hefty ones at that, in the series. This is because the first game line of Boston -2.5 lets us know that the Lakers will be close to 7-point favorites in Los Angeles, although that will likely change depending on the outcome of the first two games.
When the opening series price of Los Angeles -150 first came out I felt that was probably about right, perhaps a shade too high, as -140 would have been a better number. But the line has moved up, partially due to the Kobe Bryant factor, as now the "Is Kobe Better Than MJ?" question has been popping up all over the place. (The answer is no.)
The key for the Lakers isn't likely to be Kobe, as he will get his points, but will be if the other players, such as Gasol, Odom, and Bynum, can make a good-sized dent in the scorer's book. While Bryant gets all of the attention, it's important to note the Lakers have six players averaging nine points per game or more.
The Celtics have just four players averaging more than nine points a game and the team's leading scorer, Paul Pierce, is averaging just 19.6 points per contest. Bryant averaged over 28 points a game in comparison. But the Celtics' balanced scoring attack has been one of the big strengths of the team this year, as Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen all had off nights at times, but one, or both, of the others were able to pick up the slack.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the playoffs, as Allen struggled badly at times, but the Celtics were able to overcome his off nights until he turned things around in the last two games against Detroit. Allen will once again be a key player in the outcome of the series. If he maintains the stroke he showed in the final two games against the Pistons (15-of-27 FG) the Celtics could be very tough to stop.
In sports gambling you don't always back the team you believe is going to win, but instead back the team you believe offers the best value for your money and that will be the case here. While the Lakers are the team most likely to come away with the trophy, they can't be bet at the odds being offered.
Boston, meanwhile, offers enough value to make them an average play at +170 or more and hope the magic of the Garden carries the Celtics to their 16th title in NBA history.