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Dec 14, 2009
betting exchange
Aug 26, 2008
NFL
Early 2007 NFL Point Spread Analysis
After three weeks of the 2007 NFL season,several betting trends have emerged that deserve attention. Although there is no guarantee that the trends of the first three weeks will continue throughout the season, they do deserve to be watched, and possibly taken into consideration when determining whether or not to place a bet.
Year of the Dog
So far it’s been a good year for underdogs, with them covering 25 of 41 games (61%). Home underdogs stand a solid 8-4 for the season, while away underdogs are 17-12. The home underdogs have won five of those 12 games straight up, while the points came into play in the other three contests, so there may not be much advantage to betting them on the moneyline.
Totals Analysis
In the first week of the season, 11 of the 16 games went under the bookmaker’s posted total, but the overs have gone 19-11 since then, including an amazing 11-4 in the third week. The overs now have a 24-22 advantage on the season.
An interesting statistic is that on games where the posted total is 34.5, or lower, the under is a perfect 3-0 on the season, which is something to consider when a total appears to be too low. This trend bears watching for the next few weeks and is something that should be included in your handicapping, but shouldn’t be the sole reason for placing a wager.
Who’s Covering and Who’s Not
Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, and Dallas have all gone 3-0 against the point spread in the early going of the season, while the Arizona Cardinals are 2-0-1.
On the other end of the spectrum, St. Louis, New Orleans, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago have each gone 0-3 against the point spread through the first three weeks of the season.
It will be interesting to see how soon the oddsmakers adjust for a fast or slow start.
Big Day For NFL Teams
Saturday August 23, 2008
After three weeks of the 2007 NFL season,several betting trends have emerged that deserve attention. Although there is no guarantee that the trends of the first three weeks will continue throughout the season, they do deserve to be watched, and possibly taken into consideration when determining whether or not to place a bet.
Year of the Dog
So far it’s been a good year for underdogs, with them covering 25 of 41 games (61%). Home underdogs stand a solid 8-4 for the season, while away underdogs are 17-12. The home underdogs have won five of those 12 games straight up, while the points came into play in the other three contests, so there may not be much advantage to betting them on the moneyline.
Totals Analysis
In the first week of the season, 11 of the 16 games went under the bookmaker’s posted total, but the overs have gone 19-11 since then, including an amazing 11-4 in the third week. The overs now have a 24-22 advantage on the season.
An interesting statistic is that on games where the posted total is 34.5, or lower, the under is a perfect 3-0 on the season, which is something to consider when a total appears to be too low. This trend bears watching for the next few weeks and is something that should be included in your handicapping, but shouldn’t be the sole reason for placing a wager.
Who’s Covering and Who’s Not
Pittsburgh, New England, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, and Dallas have all gone 3-0 against the point spread in the early going of the season, while the Arizona Cardinals are 2-0-1.
On the other end of the spectrum, St. Louis, New Orleans, Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago have each gone 0-3 against the point spread through the first three weeks of the season.
It will be interesting to see how soon the oddsmakers adjust for a fast or slow start.
Big Day For NFL Teams
Saturday August 23, 2008
A fairly large slate of NFL games awaits bettors today, as nine games are on the schedule. A
number of teams will be putting a little more effort out there to try and win today, in part so they can rest their starters a bit more next week.
In baseball, there are fewer large favorites than there have been in days past, with just three favorites of -200 or more, including the Cubs, who went off at a whopping -350.
Today's plays are up and can be found at Free Sports Betting Picks located in the Sports Gambling 101 section of the site.
In baseball, there are fewer large favorites than there have been in days past, with just three favorites of -200 or more, including the Cubs, who went off at a whopping -350.
Today's plays are up and can be found at Free Sports Betting Picks located in the Sports Gambling 101 section of the site.
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Q:S1 Where can I bet legally on Sports?
A:S1 (Philip Galanter) Leaving aside various forms of (animal) racing, there are at least four ways to bet on sports in the US, and of these two are legal, one is illegal, and one is ambiguous.
You can bet legally at licensed Nevada Sports Books, and illegally with bookies in virtually every town. Most of the following describes the ins and outs of gambling at sports books. There are two points worth noting here. First, Nevada Sports Books can set up phone accounts, but will not accept wagers across state lines. Second, odds with illegal bookies are often worse than those one can get in Nevada.
Betting with offshore (international) sports books seems to be on the rise, and promises to spread from phone services to internet based online services. From the point of view of bets and odds offered, these books are similar to licensed Nevada Sports Books. The legality of these services is, at best, ambiguous. There are claims and opinions on all sides of the argument, but few legal precedents. In addition, some offshore books are run by old trustworthy firms, some are fly-by-night scams, and many are somewhere in between. Cavaet Bettor.
The last way (and other than in state Nevada betting the only other clearly legal way) to bet on sports in the US is the Oregon Lottery. This was described as follows in a rec.gambling post:
The Oregon lottery is alive and well as far as football betting. The game is called sports action. The line is set by Jim Feist. It is set and printed on Wednesday and does not change. This can work to the bettor's advantage due to changes in team lineups due to injuries and such. The minimum wager is $2.00 and the minimum number of games bet is 3. The payoffs for a three game win is $5.00 per dollar wagered. Four games gets $10.00 per dollar wagered. All other wagers are paid on a paramutual fashion. For example, a seven game winner usually pays around $160 to $350. The maximum number of games that can be bet have a winner. A week or two ago $14,000 carried over in the 14 pool. There are also some games that are called special play games with over/under total score. The line seems to be fairly consistent with the Vegas line on the Wednesday that it is set.
Q:S2 What sports can I bet on?
A:S2 You can bet on any sport the Sports Book you are wagering with covers. At most books, this includes professional and college football and basketball, professional baseball, professional hockey, and horse and dog racing. Every now and then Sports Books will offer proposition bets (see below) on events like professional golf tournaments and the Indy 500 and the like, but not on a regular basis for other events in those sports.
Q:S3 What is "the spread"?
A:S3 The spread is a point advantage given to a weaker team that is expected to lose by X number of points. This is the odds makers way of making even bets possible for a Sports Book. Usually if you bet against the spread you make an 11-10 bet. This means that you win $10 if you bet $11 for a total of $21 if your team covers the spread.
A team covers the spread if it wins the game with the score modified by the spread. If Dallas and Washington are playing and the spread is (Dallas -7), then Dallas has to win by at least 8 points to cover. Half-point spreads are also possible.
Q:S4 Why do I have to bet $11 to win $10?
A:S4 This is one of the many ways the Sports book makes its money. In an ideal situation, the same amount of money will be bet on both sides of the line and the Sports Book will take its 10% from the losing side. If $55000 ($50000 and an addition $5000 to make the bets) was bet on Washington and $55000 bet on Dallas, no matter who wins the game the SB will make $5000. In case of a tie, all money is refunded. This is a rather simplified version as the spread moves when one side becomes more heavily bet on.
Q:S5 What are all of the different types of bets?
A:S5
Proposition betA prop bet is a bet the SB offers at odds and conditions of its choosing. Prop bets can be exotic bets like which team will score the most touchdowns, which team will shoot the most three pointers, which running back will rush for the most yards, etc. Most prop bets are offered at 11-10 odds, but some of the exotics will be offered at better or worse odds, depending on the bet.
Money Line BetsA money line bet is a bet on the straight up total of an event or the odds for a straight up prop bet. There are two totals given for either side on a money line bet. A negative and a plus side. Dallas -170
Washington +150
What this means is that for every $17 you bet on Dallas, you win $10 if they win. For every $10 you bet on Washington, you win $15 if they win. This is the way SB's make money off games by not giving points.
Spread BetsThese are the standard bets to make. Basically a proposition bet at 11-10 odds where the conditions are you give or take points on the team you are betting on hoping that the modified total of your teams score beats the other teams straight score. Bets on the spread are often know as straight bets because they pay even money (minus the 10% vig). Tampa Bay +19 1/2
Miami -19 1/2
This means that if you bet on Miami, Miami needs to score at least 20 more points than Tampa to cover. If you bet on Tampa, the score must be at least within 19 for you to win. The bottom team is almost always the home team.
Over/Under BetsThese are also 11-10 bets on what the total of the game will be. If the total posted on a game is 39 1/2 points, then you can wager that the total score of both teams added together will be either over or under the posted total. Betting the over is known as "betting on the ball", betting under is known as "betting on the clock". Chicago -5 1/2 -180 1:00 pm
Atlanta +5 1/2 +150 42 1/2
This gives the money line, the point spread, and the total for the game. It also tells you that Atlanta is the home team, and the game starts at 1:00 pm. As far as I know, this is the standard posting at mosts Books.
ParlaysA parlay bet is betting on the outcome of two or more events, and getting higher odds than betting on the outcome of both events. The drawback is that the odds aren't right and that you must win all of the events to win the parlay. # of plays Standard Odds True Odds
---------- ------------- ---------
2 plays 13-5 3-1
3 plays 6-1 7-1
4 plays 10-1 15-1
5 plays 20-1 31-1
6 plays 40-1 63-1
7 plays 80-1 127-1
The more events parlayed the worse the odds shift in the casinos advantage. The advantage for the player for parlays lies in the fact that he can bet more on the same game (spread and over/under) and he can bet more on two teams who are playing at the same time.
In order to be competitive, some casinos offer ties-win parlay cards. This greatly helps the player. The Las Vegas Hilton SB is one of these.
TeasersA teaser bet is a bet where you can move the spread by a set amount, but have to pay to do it. You must bet at least two teams like a parlay and win both. You can move the spread by on all the games by the set amount.
Football Teasers # of teams 6 pts 6 1/2 pts 7 pts
---------- ----- --------- -----
2 teams 11-10 5-6 5-7
3 teams 8-5 3-2 6-5
4 teams 5-2 2-1 9-5
5 teams 4-1 7-2 3-1
6 teams 6-1 5-1 4-1
Basketball Teasers # of teams 4 pts 4 1/2 pts 5 pts
---------- ----- --------- -----
2 teams 11-10 5-6 5-7
3 teams 8-5 3-2 6-5
4 teams 5-2 2-1 9-5
5 teams 4-1 7-2 3-1
6 teams 6-1 5-1 9-2
Buying a half pointYou can shift the spread a half point in your favor by laying 6-5 odds instead of the standard 11-10. This is called buying a half point. You usually want to stay away from this bet except on three point spreads on football games. This is also know as "buying the hook".
Q:S6 Can I make a million dollars with one bet?
A:S6 Sure. Bet $1,100,000 straight up.
Q:S7 Who makes the odds?
A:S7 (Philip Galanter) Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc., establishes the odds for about 75% of the licensed Sports Books in Nevada, as well as for the Oregon State Lottery. It is run by Michael 'Roxy' Roxborough. He also operates as a consultant on gaming strategies, management, marketing, and personnel. Most illegal books in and out of Nevada draw their odds from what is posted at the various casinos. Transmitting gambling information across state lines for the purpose of placing or taking bets is illegal. News items about point spreads and the like can be reported for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Q:S8 Do I have to be over 21 to bet on sports?
A:S8 Yes.
Q:S9 What is the minimum bet that must be reported to the IRS?
A:S9 Well all gambling wins and losses are supposed to be reported to the IRS at the end of the year, but if you bet more than $10,000 at once, you must fill out some IRS paperwork at the ticket counter. All money won must be reported to the IRS.
Q:S10 Are there any good books or articles on sports gambling topics?
A:S10 (Philip Galanter) Here are some sports gambling related books I've found to be useful, in suggested reading order for beginners. The obscure ones I've purchased from the Gamblers Book Club, although I don't know if they are still in print. I tend to like writers that are objective and more interested in your winning than being a fan.
Orkin, Mike. "Can You Win?", W.H.Freeman and Co., 1991. IBSN 0-7167-2155-4 (soft)
Presents a general overview of gambling presenting the real odds of various games. It only assumes a high school level of mathematics understanding. The 32 page section on sports betting doubles as a guide to the various betting options available, and there is also a 16 page section on horserace betting. A brief treatment on Kelly betting as applied to sports gambling is included.
An overview concentrating on the question posed by the title, the author concludes the sports section with the observation:
"If you're going to gamble, which games should you play? I recommend sports betting. There are two reasons for this: 1 - Unlike in roulette, craps, and keno, it's impossible to prove that you can't win in the long run. 2 - When you win, it's because you're smart, and when you lose, it's because somebody fumbled." Sugar, Bert Randolph. "The Caesars Palace Sports Book of Betting", St. Martin's Press, 1992. IBSN 0-312-05058-5 (paper)
The author is a well known sports writer and Las Vegas insider. A good popular introduction to sports betting with equal amounts of information on betting terms, options, odds, and the like, various considerations for each major sport; advice on handicapping based on matchups, streaks, injuries and stat.s; history and color; and money management. Manteris, Art, (with Rick Talley). "SuperBookie - Inside Las Vegas Sports Gambling", Contemporary Books, 1991. IBSN 0-8092-4430-6 (cloth) 0-8092-3845-4 (paper)
A good second book to read, after perhaps the Sugar or Orkin books as an introduction, Manteris shares his observations as the Director of the Hilton Race and Sports Organization...aka the SuperBook. Interesting stories about the early days, why the house doesn't always win, how point spreads are set and moved as a practical matter, how the house calculates its take, scams, mob involvement (now mostly not) and more. Peter Asch and Richard E. Quandt. "Racetrack Betting - The Professors' Guide to Strategies", Praeger Publishers, 1986. IBSN 0-275-94103-5 (paper)
Written by 2 academics from Rutgers and Princeton, this book seems to be a trustworthy analysis of betting at the horseraces. Included is an overview and analysis of popular strategies, subjective and objective analysis of available information and statistics, utility functions as applied to the public and wagering behavior (important given the paramutual basis of the odds), and the bottom line on some complex systems by the authors, Ziemba, and Quandt which seem to actually work. Bob Carrol, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn. "The Hidden Game of Football", Warner Books, 1988. IBSN 0-446-39091-7 (paper)
While addressing sports betting only in passing, this book concentrates on innovative methods for detailed sports statistics analysis leading to accurate predictions. "Scientific" handicappers will find this book very stimulating. Miller, Colonel J.R. "How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread - a step by step textbook guide", Flying M Group, 1993. IBSN 0-9636500-0-9 (spiral bound)
This is a self published specialty book available from Gamblers Book Club or by mail order. While the quality of most spiral bound gambling editions are suspect, this book is reasonably good. It provides a detailed analysis of how a serious gambler factors in pointspreads, power ratings, injuries, motivations, weather, and statistics to win over the long haul. The section on money management should be taken with a grain of salt, as it proposes flat betting as almost optimal, a modified plateau system as even better, and the "Kelly system" as a formula for disaster, in a rather unqualified way. Michael Roxborough and Mike Rhoden. "Race and Sports Book Management - a guide for the legal bookmaker", (publisher not noted) 1991. IBSN 0-31-53873-6 (spiral bound)
Written by "Roxy" Roxborough, the provider of the spread and other services to most major sports books in Nevada via his Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc. This book covers in moderate detail the mechanics of running a legal sports book, including setting and moving the spread, various economic measures such as the handle and practical hold percentage, overlays, parlays, limits, the law and regulations. Pascual, M. "Bankroll Control - the mathematics of money management", (publisher not noted) 1987. No IBSN noted.
While poorly published (xeroxed, white-out corrections, hand written corrections and page numbers) this odd and perhaps difficult to find spiral book is a treasure trove of practical analysis applying Kelly betting to sports and racing gambling. Theory is light and presented with (hand drawn) graphs where possible. The book presents a numerical recipe approach to even complicated betting scenarios such as simultaneous games, simultaneous single and multiple parlay plays, win-show-place betting, and more. Also included are some useful tables (variables include % of wins, number of teams, variations to include parlays or not) showing optimal bets, risk and expectancy. Also included are some program listings in BASIC for (now mostly obsolete) hand calculators that may be useful as pseudocode.
The cosmetics do not, however, inspire trust. It would be nice if a r.g math weenie would review it.
Q:S11 What internet resources and sports computer data services are available to those interested in sports gambling?
A:S11 (Philip Galanter)
Web Sites
http://www.infi.net/jf/
where Jim Feist provides useful sports gambling information (intro, rules, lines, LV sports books) as well as ads for his tout services.
http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/sports/gridiron.html
a good "jump site" with links to all manner of football information, including betting info.
http://www.hal.com:80/users/markg/NFL/
used to manage an NFL Pool, but also has links to sports gambling information.
http://www.netgen.com/sis/sports.html
provides general sports information including schedules and team statistics some might find useful in handicapping.
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/user/vernon/www/nfl.html
provides power ratings, statistics, and other information of interest to NFL handicappers.
http://www.netaxs.com/people/sportbet
Sports International's on-line sports betting service.
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In order for a player to gain control of the horse betting scene, one has to first master the player within. Many have talked about many systems being the root cause of why players win or the way the horses are raised and bred that led to ones loss.
Unknown to many, the best thing that players can do to gain the upper hand in horse racing is not to focus on the aspects of the game but to look into ones own shortcomings as a horse racing bettor.
Many people are quick to point the finger on many factors that could cause the downfall of their bet but the ultimate burden is in the player themselves.
Getting the proper tools
By tools, this refers to the sources of information. For one to make a valued and educated judgment, players must have the correct data with them. Anything that comes to the player is to be deemed correct and therefore must be of use in planning the wages. The most common ways to gather information is to use the internet to get the fastest amount of information possible.
The internet has a vast array of articles online and features like chat that would enable the player to talk to other people at the same time and consult with them on what to do next.
Any information gathered must be as accurate as possible for it to be of use.
Use other forms of media
Going online is not the only way to beef up ones knowledge on horse racing and betting. Countless magazines have been published on the topic and they offer a lot of opinions and reviews on horses, the tracks and also inside information such as the trainer teams of the horse and their breeding. Most of these information is not mentioned in the board stats of the betting area and this is what makes it more valuable.
Being able to acquire the needed information makes the player more confident about planning ones next strategy.
Controlling ones resources Players who have limited amount of resources should be the most wary of how they wager. Players can work around this shortage by betting smartly. When betting smartly, one take into account how much the amount will net if it wins and amount if lost. Care is taken to ensure that the resources are not wiped out from ones budget.
Trail and error
Learning how to dominate the horse betting scene reqwuiores the person must habve expericend how t is like to win and lose. Only by experiencing an actual loss can make ther players remember on how to avoid making the same mistake again. Everyone goes through this stage and it is essential that everybody gets their feet wet here.
Time and effort must be given to the sport so that players would have the necessary means to dominate their abilities in the betting world.
Unknown to many, the best thing that players can do to gain the upper hand in horse racing is not to focus on the aspects of the game but to look into ones own shortcomings as a horse racing bettor.
Many people are quick to point the finger on many factors that could cause the downfall of their bet but the ultimate burden is in the player themselves.
Getting the proper tools
By tools, this refers to the sources of information. For one to make a valued and educated judgment, players must have the correct data with them. Anything that comes to the player is to be deemed correct and therefore must be of use in planning the wages. The most common ways to gather information is to use the internet to get the fastest amount of information possible.
The internet has a vast array of articles online and features like chat that would enable the player to talk to other people at the same time and consult with them on what to do next.
Any information gathered must be as accurate as possible for it to be of use.
Use other forms of media
Going online is not the only way to beef up ones knowledge on horse racing and betting. Countless magazines have been published on the topic and they offer a lot of opinions and reviews on horses, the tracks and also inside information such as the trainer teams of the horse and their breeding. Most of these information is not mentioned in the board stats of the betting area and this is what makes it more valuable.
Being able to acquire the needed information makes the player more confident about planning ones next strategy.
Controlling ones resources Players who have limited amount of resources should be the most wary of how they wager. Players can work around this shortage by betting smartly. When betting smartly, one take into account how much the amount will net if it wins and amount if lost. Care is taken to ensure that the resources are not wiped out from ones budget.
Trail and error
Learning how to dominate the horse betting scene reqwuiores the person must habve expericend how t is like to win and lose. Only by experiencing an actual loss can make ther players remember on how to avoid making the same mistake again. Everyone goes through this stage and it is essential that everybody gets their feet wet here.
Time and effort must be given to the sport so that players would have the necessary means to dominate their abilities in the betting world.
250$ free cash
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics renew one of the NBA's all-time great rivalries beginning on Thursday, when the NBA Finals begin in Boston. While the two teams were pretty evenly matched back in the 1980s, with the Lakers winning twice and Boston winning once, but sports bettors don't believe that to be the case this year, as Los Angeles has been bet up to nearly a -200 favorite. At Olympic, the Lakers are -185, with Boston +165, Intertops has L.A. -200 and Boston +170, while Sportsbook has the Lakers -200, but only a +160 return on the Celtics. Remember, it pays to shop lines on a consistent basis.
The teams met twice during the regular season, with Boston coming away with easy wins both times, although that was before the Lakers added Pau Gasol. The Celtics won 110-91 in Los Angeles behind the 33 points of Paul Pierce in December after previously defeating the Lakers by a score of 107-94 in Beantown back in November. Both those games were played so long ago, they're pretty much irrelevant now.
Instead of looking at past history, it's best to look at the strengths and weaknesses of both teams in trying to determine the winner of the series. The teams are pretty close to each other in offensive shooting percentage, but the Lakers average nearly 10 more points per game than Boston for the sole reason of playing a more uptempo game, which results in more possessions.
The Celtics have a slight edge in defense field goal percentage, allowing just 42-percent, while the Lakers allow 44.4-percent shooting. The Celtics allow 11 fewer points per game, but again the stat is a bit misleading for the same reason of there being fewer possessions in a typical Boston game.
Where the Value IsUltimately, bettors must ask themselves where the value is in the series. The Celtics are in the unique situation of possibly being favored four times at home, but are still the underdogs, and pretty hefty ones at that, in the series. This is because the first game line of Boston -2.5 lets us know that the Lakers will be close to 7-point favorites in Los Angeles, although that will likely change depending on the outcome of the first two games.
When the opening series price of Los Angeles -150 first came out I felt that was probably about right, perhaps a shade too high, as -140 would have been a better number. But the line has moved up, partially due to the Kobe Bryant factor, as now the "Is Kobe Better Than MJ?" question has been popping up all over the place. (The answer is no.)
The key for the Lakers isn't likely to be Kobe, as he will get his points, but will be if the other players, such as Gasol, Odom, and Bynum, can make a good-sized dent in the scorer's book. While Bryant gets all of the attention, it's important to note the Lakers have six players averaging nine points per game or more.
The Celtics have just four players averaging more than nine points a game and the team's leading scorer, Paul Pierce, is averaging just 19.6 points per contest. Bryant averaged over 28 points a game in comparison. But the Celtics' balanced scoring attack has been one of the big strengths of the team this year, as Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen all had off nights at times, but one, or both, of the others were able to pick up the slack.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the playoffs, as Allen struggled badly at times, but the Celtics were able to overcome his off nights until he turned things around in the last two games against Detroit. Allen will once again be a key player in the outcome of the series. If he maintains the stroke he showed in the final two games against the Pistons (15-of-27 FG) the Celtics could be very tough to stop.
In sports gambling you don't always back the team you believe is going to win, but instead back the team you believe offers the best value for your money and that will be the case here. While the Lakers are the team most likely to come away with the trophy, they can't be bet at the odds being offered.
Boston, meanwhile, offers enough value to make them an average play at +170 or more and hope the magic of the Garden carries the Celtics to their 16th title in NBA history.
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Many longtime sports bettors will say that baseball is the easiest of the major sports in which to show a profit, yet it's one of the least wagered on sports around.
In the book "Sports Betting: A Winner's Handbook" Jerry Patterson states, "More big scores have been made betting on baseball than any other proposition."
The most common assumption on why sports gamblers don't wager on baseball is that they don't know how. There is no point spread and the odds used for baseball wagering look foreign to them. But it's actually quite easy.
The first thing prospective baseball bettors need to do is understand how the money line works.
Smart bettors and professional gamblers will seldom give odds greater than -140 when betting on baseball and always look for a reason to bet the underdog. If you bet nothing but underdogs you can win less than half of your bets and still come out ahead in the long run.
The Run LineThe run line is essentially a combination of the point spread and the money line rolled into one. Don't worry, once you see it in action, it's not nearly as confusing as it first sounds.
The run line uses a constant spread of 1.5 runs, although on very rare occasions you may see it jump to 2.5 runs. The team that is favored on the money line will also be the favored team on the run line.
Let's use an example of the Royals playing at the Red Sox. On the regular money line we may see odds like:
Kansas City Royals +165Boston Red Sox -180
As you remember from your reading on the money line, what this means is that Red Sox bettors are asked to risk $180 to win $100, while Royals bettors will risk $100 to win $165.
But when betting with the run line, we would expect to see the same game looking closer to:
Kansas City Royals +1.5 -125Boston Red Sox -1.5 +105
Now, those people betting on the Royals are risking more money than they will win, in this case $125 to win $100, but they are receiving 1.5 runs. Even if the Royals lose by one run, those betting Kansas City on the run line will win their bet because of the 1.5 runs.
Looking at another game, this time where the road team is favored, we'll choose the Padres at the Giants. For our purposes, let's say the odds on the game were:
San Diego Padres -115San Francisco Giants +105
On the money line, Padres bettors will risk $115 to win $100, while Giants bettors will risk $100 to win $105. Using the run line, however, we would see odds resembling:
San Diego Padres -1.5 +135San Francisco Giants +1.5 -155
The reason the odds didn't change as much for the Padres (-115 to +135) as they did for the Red Sox (-180 to +105) is because the Red Sox are the home team and will not bat in the bottom of the ninth inning if they lead by one run or they will stop batting in the ninth inning if they go ahead by a run, even if the bases are loaded and there are no outs, unless they score by home run.
The Padres, as the road team, will continue to bat all the way through the ninth inning even if they're already ahead, or if the Padres take a one run lead in the top of the ninth, they'll continue to swing away and try to add to their lead.
Betting the run like makes sense when you like a big favorite and can get them at reduced odds by giving the 1.5 runs.
It's also wise to consider the predicted amount of runs scored in a game when looking at the run line. Obviously, 1.5 runs is more meaningful in a contest where the oddsmaker is predicting a total of 7 runs to be scored than it is in a game where the predicted total is 14 runs.
How is the predicted number of runs figured? Simply by looking at the oddsmaker's over/under number on the game. If you don't know anything about over/unders, you're in luck, as that's our next topic.
Baseball Overs & UndersIf you're completely new to overs/unders, more commonly referred to as totals, a good place to get started is here.
Baseball totals are just like the totals for any other sport, in that you're betting the total number of points (runs in this case) is either over or under the bookmaker's predicted total.
The one difference is that in many cases you will have to risk more than the standard -110 used in football and basketball totals when you place a baseball totals bet. On the positive side, there will be cases where you receive favorable odds, such as +120 when you place a toals bet in baseball.
Using our earlier game between the Padres and the Giants for total purposes, it's quite possible we would see a totals proposition of:
San Diego Padres OV 8.5 -130San Francisco Giants UN 8.5 +110[
What this means is that bettors wishing to wager more than 8.5 runs will be scored will have to risk $130 to win $100, while those wagering on the under will risk $100 to win $110.
For wagering purposes what happens in extra innings counts, both for totals and run line bets.
As a general rule, strikeout pitchers typically perform better in night games and may be solid under plays, while off-speed pitchers who don't register too many strikeouts are usually good over plays when they are pitching in the daytime.
There you have the basics to betting on the National Pastime. Bet wisely and remember that it's a long season and you might be the next gambler to be singing the praises of baseball wagering.
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